Betting: Millwall vs. Derby

© Edmund Boyden

THE bookmakers make Millwall favourites for tomorrow's visit of Derby County, with the Lions returning to league action on the back of midweek success in the FA Cup.

Like Millwall, NewsAtDen's betting expert had a bad time of it last Saturday as refereeing injustices and questionable defending ruined his prediction of an Upton Park upset.

But he has climbed back on the horse to cast his eye over the bookies' offerings for tomorrow's crunch game against the Rams. Good luck, all!

Match Betting

Millwall are best priced at 6/5 with Coral for the win tomorrow, with their visitors at 13/5 with bwin and the draw 12/5 with bet365.

The Lions go into the game full of confidence following their giant-killing feats at St. Mary's on Tuesday, and will be boosted by the availability of the likes of Darius Henderson, Andy Keogh and Paul Robinson.

And, although they have won only one of their last six Championship games, we think they have a good chance against the Rams.

Nigel Clough's young squad have been plagued by inconsistency this season, and have spent much of the season flirting with the play-off places without ever cementing themselves in a strong position.

Derby arrive at the Den on the back of a three-game winless run and back-to-back defeats to Stoke in the FA Cup and at Barnsley in the league eleven days ago.

The Rams' away form is not the best, having lost seven of their last 12 away games. Earlier in the season, though, they won three of their first four games on the road.

It will be interesting to see whether the lengthy break since their last game works in Derby's favour, but we predict a side with only one away win since mid-September will find things tough tomorrow.

Goals and scorelines

Millwall's goalscoring troubles do now seem to be less of a concern, having found the net in five of their last six fixtures compared to a run which saw them score once in the eight games before that.

Derby's recent defeats ended a sequence of four consecutive clean sheets. Furthermore, they have not won or lost a Championship game by more than one goal since late November.

So we are expecting another tight afternoon for the Lions. A 2-1 victory for the home side is priced at an attractive 9/1 with Coral, while 1-0 is 7/1 with Ladbrokes.

The bookies make 1-1 the most-likely final score, with 6/1 on offer at William Hill.

Nevertheless, we think both teams are capable of finding the net so recommend it as being one for the over-2.5 goals coupon (6/5 with bet365) if you are that way inclined.

Half-time/full-time

Derby do seem to be particularly strong in the second halves of matches. 13 of their 28 league matches to date have been level at the break but, of those games, only four have ended in defeat.

The Rams have only been ahead at the interval on seven occasions – just once more than the lowly Lions – and have yet to win from a losing half-time position this season.

Ensuring his side are ahead at the break may well be a priority for Lions boss Kenny Jackett, then, given Tuesday's win over the Saints was the first time this season that they have won a game from a losing position.

Millwall/Millwall is 11/4 with Ladbrokes, while Millwall/Draw could be tempting at 16/1 with SkyBet.

Player Markets

Jackett has a few decisions to make ahead of naming his starting line-up given a side lacking many of their stars performed so well in midweek.

Henderson and Keogh will probably to go straight into the side, so it's no surprise that the bookies make the duo most-likely to open the scoring. Henderson is 5/1 to score first with BlueSq, while Keogh is 13/2 with bet365.

If either are left on the bench, though, they may be worth considering at the same odds to score the game's last goal.

Liam Trotter has benefitted from being played in an advanced position in recent weeks, so his price of 12/1 to score first with Ladbrokes is tempting. Coral make him 10/3 to find the net at any time.

A tempting outside bet is for Lions captain Robinson, who looks likely to return, to score his first goal of the season tomorrow. He is 12/1 with SkyBet to find the net at any point, or 33/1 with the same company to score first and the same odds to notch the game's last goal.

Experienced front-man Nathan Tyson seems set to start for the Rams, and has a good record against Millwall. He is 9/1with William Hill to hit the net first or last, and 3/1 with Paddy Power to notch at any point tomorrow.

Our recommendations

– Millwall to win (6/5 with Coral)
– Millwall to win 2-1 (9/1 with Coral)
– Millwall/Draw (16/1 with SkyBet)
– Darius Henderson first goalscorer (5/1 with BlueSq)
– Liam Trotter first goalscorer (12/1 with Ladbrokes)
– Paul Robinson anytime goalscorer (12/1 with SkyBet)

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