"I VERY rarely back against Millwall. The first reason is an obvious one, the second is due to the fact that we’re generally unpredictable and capable of a big result even when seemingly out of form – the 3-0 win at Leicester was on the back of a nine game winless run."
That's was last week's pre-emptive disclaimer for incorrectly advising that Millwall would lose at Turf Moor last week – a display which proved, once again, how unpredictable Kenny Jackett's team have been this season.
Today brings the visit of promotion-chasing Reading, who find themselves in third place after a five game winning run (all to nil) – understandably, layers make the away team favourite to take the points.
Reading 2.5 (William Hill)
Millwall 3.35 (Betfair)
Draw 3.35 (Betfair)
Although their home form has been disappointing of late, I don't believe Millwall should be bigger than 9/4 for any home league game and I'm backing the Lions to build on last week's result, despite what the form book suggests.
33 of Millwall's last 44 wins have come from leading at half-time, so perhaps the 6.2 available for Millwall HT/FT represents even greater value than the 3.35 in the outright market.
In last week's betting preview I suggested that certain Millwall-related bets are best saved for when at least one of James Henry or Hamer Bouazza are in the starting line-up. The pair are arguably the most creative at the club and our attacking threat increases drastically when they are selected. I was pleasantly surprised when I saw both were selected for the trip to Burnley, a decision that certainly paid dividends.
As I've said in recent weeks, Paul Robinson will surely find the net again soon. At home, with Henry and Bouazza taking the corners, he has to be backed at 40-1 (first) and 14-1 (anytime).
Henry will be keen to impress against his former club and I fully expect him to put himself forward for all free-kicks in a goalscoring position.
Josh Wright will be full of confidence after his wonder goal last week and he makes some appeal at 28-1 (first) and 11-1 (anytime) with Bet365. Henderson (6-1 & 2-1), Keogh (8-1 & 11-4) and Kane (8-1 & 11-4) are also worthy of consideration.
However, I feel the Robinson and Henry bets have the best angle.
1pt 6.2 Betfair (5.2-1)
0.5pt first goalscorer, 18-1 Blue Square
0.5pt to score anytime, 6-1 William Hill
0.5pt first goalscorer, 40-1 Coral
0.5pt to score anytime, 14-1 Bet365
(Bets are on a scale of 1-10pts)
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