Betting: Burnley vs. Millwall

© Edmund Boyden

I CAN'T imagine that Kenny Jackett has enjoyed much of this season, but the last few days would surely rank as some of his lowest as Millwall manager.

A disappointing home defeat to Middlesbrough on Tuesday – where the effort his team showed in the second half cannot excuse the lacklustre first-half display – was followed days later by a nightmare training session which resulted in injuries for Liam Trotter, Jack Smith and Alan Dunne.

Continuing their encouraging recent away form at Burnley on Saturday won’t be easy for the Lions.

Burnley took just nine points from their first nine games at home this season but their form at Turf Moor picked up over the winter with Eddie Howe’s men taking 14 points from their last seven home games.

Bookmakers see the game as such…

Burnley: Evs
Millwall: 10/3
Draw: 5/2

I can't help but think that the value lies in backing Burnley.

I very rarely back against Millwall. The first reason is an obvious one, the second is due to the fact that we’re generally unpredictable and capable of a big result even when seemingly out of form – the 3-0 win at Leicester was on the back of a nine game winless run.

However, if Saturday’s game was played ten times I’d expect Burnley to win at least five, therefore they should be odds on. This means, at even money, Burnley are the percentage play. Of course, I’m happy to be wrong.

Looking at the goalscorer markets, I still believe Paul Robinson will pop up with a goal soon and Bet365’s 16/1 for anytime goalscorer is tempting. However, Robinson’s chances of scoring does relate to the quality of set-pieces so I think it best to save bets for games where at least one of Henry or Bouazza are in the starting line-up.

Burnley’s Jay Rodriguez is having a fine season having already bagged 18 goals in all competitions. Millwall will do well to keep him quiet but at a top-price of just 7/5 to score anytime, the layers are on to him.

I think just a small bet on the outright market will suffice as there will be greater value surrounding backing Millwall and their players in the future weeks.

1pt Evens (generally)

(bets on 1-10pt scale)

14 winning months from the past 17
Bet alongside a genuine professional gambler
Email for details

One thought on “Betting: Burnley vs. Millwall

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *