NO CHAMPIONSHIP side has lost fewer games than Middlesbrough this term.
But after their flying start to the season, Tony Mowbray’s outfit have stuttered of late – last week’s 2-1 home win against struggling Nottingham Forest was their first league victory since Boxing Day.
Despite some impressive away performance of late, Millwall are still struggling for results at home, scoring just one goal in their previous six home league games.
Understandably, the market holds no strong opinion with current prices suggesting the following percentage chances…
40% chance of Millwall win (2.5 decimal odds)
31% chance of Middlesbrough win (3.15)
29% chance of draw (3.45)
I believe that to be a fair assessment. Therefore, with layers pricing the event about right, there is no edge in playing the outright market. In short, while I believe Millwall will get something from this game, there just isn’t enough value on offer to warrant backing up that opinion with a wager.
Backing Millwall/Millwall in the half-time/full-time market can often represent value and I toyed with the idea of advising such a bet for tonight’s game at 10/3 (Ladbrokes).
However, there is a concern that with this being Millwall’s eighth game in just 24 days, fatigue could play its part. With this in mind, and after much deliberation, I decided against all aspects of result-betting and switched my attention to the goalscorer markets.
Liam Trotter has been back to somewhere near his best in recent weeks and seems to have been slightly underrated by Coral, who quote him at 12/1 to score the first goal, and 4/1 to score anytime.
Paul Robinson has a decent goalscoring record for a centre-half, failing to score in just one season (2003/04, when limited to just nine appearances). Despite scoring 19 in his previous five seasons, Robinson has failed to hit the net this year and, with him going close in recent games, it’s surely a matter of time before the captain breaks his duck.
Goalscorer bets are always speculative but the pair might be worth a small interest tonight…
1pt to score anytime, 4/1 Coral
0.5pt first goalscorer, 33/1 generally
0.5pt to score anytime, 11/1 Bet365 & Paddy Power
(Bets are on a scale of 1-10pts)